Thanks for sharing. What do you think about China's demographics? I think the dramatic reduction in the working population in the next 10 years and a predicted reduction to 700M citizens within 100 years are big challenges.
I fully agree. China is headed for a drop in productivity as it ages and the absolute number of people in the workforce drops (and China doesnt have a strong policy of immigration to improve the labour pool) . Also there will be a significant healthcare burden on the state - While the Chinese government has incentivised more children, given the levels of uncertainty, high costs and a highly educated women population with a high proportion working has meant that the birth rate hasn't improved. On the flip side, China is the world leader in automation. There are more and more robots in factories and for customer service. As time goes by, I expect a lower population heavily leveraging AI and robots for a greater productivity than today. China will have loads of capital and technology to deploy into other emerging markets to create production without having its own human workers. It remains a significant challenge for the party - you can expect huge automation, focus on AI, big incentives for having more children, perhaps allowing immigration from neighbouring countries like Vietnam and for Chinese capital and technology to be deployed overseas and into financial markets (like Europe as it ages)
Thanks. China's reduction in population could really help if combined with automation. However, I think the 15:1 worker to retiree reduction to 2:1 in the next 10 years is a big cliff that no one has ever done before. But nobody had a 15.1 ratio for growth either!
Thanks for an amazing reading Aditya. Loved the story flow backed with amazing insights .. the Chinese resilience coupled with their innovation leadership is exciting times for the world. One macro aspect I feel could be added is the China population trends and the aging society and its impact on the China story ?
Thanks again and so much to learn and continue reading here !
I totally agree - the Chinese population trends and aging society are a core part of China's story - and remains a massive challenge. I'll include it when I next refresh its article. Thanks for pointing this out
Addy, I have read this, it was really insighful, Can you help me suggest some books to understand china.
Thanks for sharing. What do you think about China's demographics? I think the dramatic reduction in the working population in the next 10 years and a predicted reduction to 700M citizens within 100 years are big challenges.
I fully agree. China is headed for a drop in productivity as it ages and the absolute number of people in the workforce drops (and China doesnt have a strong policy of immigration to improve the labour pool) . Also there will be a significant healthcare burden on the state - While the Chinese government has incentivised more children, given the levels of uncertainty, high costs and a highly educated women population with a high proportion working has meant that the birth rate hasn't improved. On the flip side, China is the world leader in automation. There are more and more robots in factories and for customer service. As time goes by, I expect a lower population heavily leveraging AI and robots for a greater productivity than today. China will have loads of capital and technology to deploy into other emerging markets to create production without having its own human workers. It remains a significant challenge for the party - you can expect huge automation, focus on AI, big incentives for having more children, perhaps allowing immigration from neighbouring countries like Vietnam and for Chinese capital and technology to be deployed overseas and into financial markets (like Europe as it ages)
Thanks. China's reduction in population could really help if combined with automation. However, I think the 15:1 worker to retiree reduction to 2:1 in the next 10 years is a big cliff that no one has ever done before. But nobody had a 15.1 ratio for growth either!
Really fabulous compilation of data/graphs. China has planned and executed on long term strategic nation building superbly.
Thanks for an amazing reading Aditya. Loved the story flow backed with amazing insights .. the Chinese resilience coupled with their innovation leadership is exciting times for the world. One macro aspect I feel could be added is the China population trends and the aging society and its impact on the China story ?
Thanks again and so much to learn and continue reading here !
I totally agree - the Chinese population trends and aging society are a core part of China's story - and remains a massive challenge. I'll include it when I next refresh its article. Thanks for pointing this out